Author: Sean Malady

Looking Forward:

• The U.S. economy added jobs at a brisk pace in August, reversing a summer slowdown in hiring, while the unemployment rate held steady. Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 162,000 for the month while the unemployment rate, as expected, held steady at 4.1%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a payrolls increase of 53,000.
  
• The food services sector added 59,000 jobs, while public education gained 42,000 jobs. The healthcare sector, which has been responsible for much of this year’s job gains, continued to grow, although at a slower pace, adding 13,000 jobs. In a sign of ongoing challenges in white-collar employment, the information sector lost 23,000 positions.
  
• Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said that “An upside surprise in payrolls will likely ramp up concerns about a rate hike, but that outcome is in the hands of next week’s inflation numbers.” “If those come in cooler than expected, the Fed will likely feel comfortable discounting potential inflationary signals coming out of the labor market,” she added.

• So far this year, employers — companies, government agencies and nonprofits — have added an average of more than 80,000 jobs a month. That is up from a dismal monthly average of 9,700 last year. But job creation remains well below the 166,000 monthly jobs that were the norm in 2023 and 2024, let alone the 491,000 a month recorded during the 2021-2022 hiring boom that followed pandemic lockdowns.

Source:Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – The Employment Situation – August 2026

Looking Forward:

• It was a big miss: Economists had penciled in 83,000 jobs to have been added. Also, revisions to May and June payroll numbers showed that the economy added 103,000 fewer jobs in those two months. The July unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1%.
  
• “However, the decline in the unemployment rate will complicate the Fed’s decision process because the economy appears to be at full employment. But, the broad slowdown in hiring will add support for those arguing to keep rates unchanged at next month’s Fed meeting,” Roach added.
  
• The drop was led by a 50,000 decline in local government education and a loss of 19,000 retail jobs. Financial activities also posted a fall of 14,000 and leisure and hospitality lost 40,000, a possible consequence of the World Cup tournament ending. Healthcare, which has been the leading sector for job creation, rose by 22,000, which was below its 12-month average of 36,000. Construction also saw an increase of 22,000.

• While jobs held flat, worker pay also saw virtually no gain during the month. Average hourly earnings increased by just 2 cents, bringing the 12-month average down to 3.2%, below the forecast increase of 3.5% and the lowest since May 2021. At the same time, the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% as the labor force participation rate fell further to 61.4%, its lowest in more than five years, another indication that fewer Americans were working or looking for jobs.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – The Employment Situation – July 2026

Looking Forward:

• Employment figures for June showed the economy continues to stride past obstacles including the pressures of the war with Iran. Employers added 57,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent from 4.3 percent the previous month. In recent years, economists have remarked with surprise at the resilience of the American economy. At the midpoint of 2026, with the volatility caused by President Trump’s tariff hikes mostly baked in and the war with Iran potentially winding down, economic durability may be the norm.
  
• Another piece of evidence for a steady U.S. economy comes from car sales data. Cox Automotive, estimates passenger vehicle sales were down 0.5 percent in the first six months of 2026 compared to a year earlier and up 4.2 percent in June from June 2025.
  
• That local government surge that appeared to push up the headline number in May was partially revised away, and the sector was flat this month. The federal government appears to have stopped shrinking after the Trump administration cut 325,000 jobs in 2025. The number of employees has been steady through 2026 so far.

• Although there has been a lot of consternation about the effects of A.I. on employment, the June figures continue to show that the technology is not leading to widespread job losses. The information sector, which includes tech companies, lost 9,000 jobs, but other areas most exposed to A.I.-fueled job losses did not experience any slowdown. Professional and businesses services added 36,000 jobs and employment in financial services was also stable.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – The Employment Situation – June 2026

Looking Forward:

• “Friday’s jobs report was much stronger-than-expected and shows that the labor market is turning a corner after a rough past 12 months driven by fears of AI and uncertainty over geopolitics and tariffs,” Glen Smith, chief investment officer at GDS Wealth Management, said in an email. “The revival of the labor market makes the Federal Reserve’s job easier and allows it to keep rates steady in the meantime as it assesses the volatile inflation situation.”
  
• Economists had forecast an increase of around 80,000, following April’s initial estimate of a 115,000 gain that was revised upward to 179,000. The unemployment rate stayed the same at 4.3%. Large gains came in the leisure and hospitality sector, where 70,000 jobs were added, and in healthcare and social assistance, with 47,000 additional jobs. Government hiring increased by 52,000.
  
• Overall, the reports paint a picture of a labor market that has stabilized following a slow start to the year. “There’s more confidence from employers, there’s relative stability with the tariffs, inflation and interest rates,” says ZipRecruiter economist Nicole Bachaud. “We’re still seeing growth,” says Sarah Breiner, an area vice president at staffing firm Adecco. She added that “wages are stabilizing as a whole.”

• And a new study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York identified a different culprit for young people’s struggle to land jobs after college: the rise of remote work. Businesses, it seems, are reluctant to hire new grads for work-at-home jobs because it is harder to train and mentor them when they aren’t coming into the office.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – The Employment Situation – May 2026

Looking Forward:

• “More solid jobs data leaves the Fed where it’s been for a while – watching and waiting, focused on the inflation side of its mandate. Rate cuts still aren’t on the near-term horizon, but the absence of inflationary threats in today’s report should quiet some of the chatter about a potential hike,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
  
• “The April jobs report smashing expectations thanks to robust private-sector growth is yet another sign that the American economy remains on a solid trajectory under President Trump,” White House Senior Deputy Press Secretary Kush Desai said on X shortly after the report was released. Stocks climbed on the news, improving on recent gains. The job tally reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was a “clear upside surprise,” Eric Merlis, a managing director and co-head of global markets at Citizens Bank, said in a note shortly after the report’s release.
  
• Fuel prices surged over the last two months after the war in Iran snarled tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for 20 percent of the world’s supply of oil and gas. And the economic effects of the war have further damaged Trump’s standing on the economy, which poses serious challenges to Republican leaders in their bid to maintain control of Congress in the midterms.

• Transportation and warehousing added 30,000, retail rose by 22,000, and social assistance saw a gain of 17,000. On the downside, information services lost 13,000, part of a continuing trend that has seen the category down 342,000 jobs since November 2022, coinciding with the rise of artificial intelligence. That has equated to a loss of 11% of jobs.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – The Employment Situation – April 2026

Looking Forward:

• Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 178,000 during the month, a reversal from the 133,000 decline in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 59,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. February’s number was revised down by 41,000 while January was revised up by 34,000 to 160,000, putting the three-month average around 68,000.
  
• As has been the case, health care was responsible for much of the growth, with the sector adding 76,000. A strike at health-care provider Kaiser Permanente in February hit the sector. The BLS said ambulatory health care services rose by 54,000, with 35,000 coming from the strike workers returning.
  
• Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas found that employers announced 217,362 job cuts in the first quarter of 2026 – the lowest total for that period since 2022. But hiring in February slowed to a six-year low, according to data released earlier this week, with dips seen in construction and leisure and hospitality. The so-called “quits rate” fell to 1.9%, the lowest since 2020, suggesting that uncertainty in the labor market has prompted more workers to stay put at their jobs.

• Last month, US average gas prices broke through $4 a gallon, and the squeeze on oil and gas is expected to trickle into other industries. The oil price shock is reminiscent of higher prices that were seen in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine. US average gas prices reached $5 a gallon at the time while inflation reached a generational high of 9%.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – The Employment Situation – March 2026

Looking Forward:

• Payrolls in the US dropped by 92,000 and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, according to the latest official figures, surprising analysts who had expected hiring to remain stable. Nearly every sector shed jobs including healthcare, typically a source of strength, which was hit by strikes last month.
  
• Employment in the federal government also continued to drop, shrinking by 10,000 last month. Since hitting a peak in October 2024, federal government employment has dropped by 330,000, or 11%, the Labor Department said. It also said job gains in December and January were lower than initially estimated.
  
• Transportation and warehousing saw a reduction of 11,000. Social assistance was one of the few sectors posting a gain, up 9,000. The weather-sensitive construction industry lost 11,000 after surging by 48,000 in January. Long-term unemployment also surged higher, with the average duration of unemployment at 25.7 weeks, the longest since December 2021.

• Inflation had been moderating, but a recent spike in gas prices following the fighting in the Middle East has raised questions about another jump. Elsewhere, economic growth has been solid, with reports this week showing that both the services and manufacturing sectors are expanding. Consumers have held up fairly well, though there are growing signs that most of the spending is being done by upper-income earners.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – The Employment Situation – February 2026

Looking Forward:

• U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated in January and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, signs of labor market stability that could give the Federal Reserve room to keep interest rates unchanged for some time while policymakers monitor inflation.
  
• Healthcare employment increased 82,000, the most since July 2020, spread across ambulatory healthcare services, hospitals, nursing and residential care facilities. The job gains were well above the monthly average of 33,000 in 2025, leading some economists to conclude that January’s increase was a fluke. Social assistance payrolls increased 42,000. Construction added 33,000 jobs, driven by the hiring of nonresidential specialty trade contractors, attributed by some economists to data centers needed to power artificial intelligence. Construction was virtually flat in 2025. Professional and business services payrolls rose 34,000.
  
• There were minor job gains in retail, utilities as well as leisure and hospitality sectors. The financial sector shed another 22,000 jobs. Job losses were recorded in transportation and warehousing, information technology and in mining and logging industries.

• Economists believe the economy needs to create 50,000 jobs per month or even less to keep up with growth in the working-age population. About 387,000 people entered the labor force last month. They were more than absorbed by a 528,000 jump in household employment, pushing the jobless rate down. Fewer people were working part-time for economic reasons and those experiencing long-term unemployment declined.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – The Employment Situation – January 2026

Looking Forward:

• U.S. employment growth slowed more than expected in December amid job losses in the construction, retail and manufacturing sectors, but a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.4% suggested the labor market was not rapidly deteriorating. The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday also showed solid wage growth last month, bolstering economists’ expectations the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged at its January 27-28 meeting.
  
• Only 584,000 jobs were added in 2025, averaging about 49,000 positions per month. That figure was less than a third of the 2 million jobs created in 2024, when employment gains averaged about 168,000 positions per month.
  
• “The jobs report is a mixed bag, with both positive and negative aspects,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth. “We continue to see an environment where companies are slow to hire and slow to fire. The overarching takeaway in today’s report is that there is more good news than bad in the first on-time jobs report in three months.”

• Markets expect the Fed to stay on hold for a period following the succession of cuts that began in September. The next reduction is not priced in until June, though that could change following the payrolls report.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – The Employment Situation – December 2025